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Tomas Gallucci

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Back of the Envelope Math [Jul. 6th, 2012|05:53 am]
Horace Dediu of asymo.com fame released numbers a while back analyzing Apple's monumental 2011 holiday quarter. To whit:


  • The iPhone has grown at an average rate of 100% year on year.

  • The iPad has grown at an average rate of 150% year on year.



It recently occurred to me what this means should the numbers hold true this holiday quarter: Apple can easily have a quarter with over $50 billion dollars in revenue.

Let's do some back of the envelope math.

37 million iPhones1 x 2 = 74 million iPhones to be sold in calendar Q4 2012.
15.5 million iPads1 x 2.5 = 31 million iPads to be sold in calendar Q4 2012.
------
105 million iPhones + iPads to be sold in Calendar Q4 2012.
x $500 Average Selling Price
-------
$52.5 billion for just iPhones and iPads

But $500 ASP is far below what was calculated here: $630/phone.
It is safe to say that the iPad has enjoyed an ASP of no less than $6002

And we haven't started counting Macs, iTunes, iPods, etc.

While I'm not a financial adviser and anything published here on this blog should not be considered professional financial advice, I believe it is safe to say that if Apple continues its upward trajectory, we will see a very impressive holiday quarter this year and therefore "You should bet on the Bitten Fruit"™.


1Apple's fiscal Q1 2012 statement
2seekingalpha.com
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